Why Are All the Smart People So Bad at History?
You know the type. MIT-trained, Substack-fluent, AI-curious. They can quote Hume, dabble in Bayesianism, and confidently wield phrases like "regression discontinuity" and "effective optimization landscape" in
Why Smart People Follow Cheap Gurus
Smart people love new ideas. They collect them like rare coins. They turn them over in their minds, admire their shine, categorize them, and rank them. They build entire identities
Why Hitler Slept Through D-Day
On the morning of June 6th, 1944, Hitler was sound asleep. The Allies were landing. Tens of thousands of soldiers were pouring onto the beaches. The tide was turning, the
Content Saturation Has Inverted Cultural Memory
This one’s for paid subscribers—a huge thanks to everyone making this work possible. If you’d like to join, you can sign up here! Subscribe 🍕 We used to
Avoiding Stupidity Beats Chasing Brilliance
We're addicted to genius. We obsess over the wunderkind solving quantum equations at nine, the dropout who IPOs from his garage, the hedge fund oracle who posts a
How Small Networks Build Stronger Ideas
Popularity kills good ideas. The moment a thought gets traction, it gets watered down. The rough edges get sanded off. The disclaimers creep in. The speculative becomes declarative, the subversive
Notes from the Exit: Why I Left the Attention Economy
I didn’t leave the attention economy because I hated it. I left because I understood it, because once you see the system for what it is—a parasitic loop
Bet on Systems, Not Sparks
We keep mistaking the highlight reel for the work. We see the headline, the launch, the million views—and forget the months, sometimes years, of invisible scaffolding beneath it. We&
There Is No "Right Time." There Is Only Now, Plus Courage.
There is a persistent fantasy that somewhere, just beyond the fog, a "right time" is waiting. A moment when the probabilities stack neatly, when uncertainty thins to a
Drowning in Options, Starving for Purpose
Look at the cereal aisle. A hundred kinds of sugar and grain and color. Look at your Netflix queue. Thousands of hours of people falling in love, falling apart, saving
Experience Doesn't Stack: The Myth of Collective Knowledge
We treat knowledge like so much cargo. Stack it high enough, gather enough people, and surely you'll reach critical mass. Twenty smart people, each with a year of
The Cannae Problem
It's August 2, 216 BCE. The Roman army stands in formation under the blistering Italian sun. Eight legions strong—the largest force Rome has ever fielded—nearly 80,